Mortgage Applications Sink 10% As Rates Climb

Mortgage application volume tumbled last week as rising interest rates — nudged higher by fresh tariff concerns — put the brakes on both refinance and purchase activity, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

Applications dropped 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, 2025. While the prior week’s data was skewed by Fourth of July adjustments, the latest report still shows significant cooling in the market.

“Treasury yields finished higher last week on average despite an intra-week drop, driven partly by renewed concerns of the impact of tariffs on the economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. 

“As a result, mortgage rates rose after two weeks of declines, which contributed to slower application activity,” he added.

Weekly Highlights

• Overall application volume: Down 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis; up 13% unadjusted, due to prior week’s holiday distortion.
• Purchase applications: Down 12% on an adjusted basis; up 11% unadjusted vs. the previous week. Purchase apps still were 13% higher compared to the same week a year ago.
• Refinance applications: Down 7% from the prior week, but still 25% higher than a year ago.

“Purchase applications remained sensitive to both the uncertain economic outlook and the volatility in rates and declined to the slowest pace since May,” Kan noted. “Refinance applications also dipped because of higher rates, with refinance applications falling — led by VA refinances partially reversing their previous week’s gain, dropping 22%.”

Market Share Shifts

• Refinance share of activity: Rose to 41.1%, from 40.0% the prior week.
• Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share: Dipped to 7.1%.
• FHA share: Increased to 19.0%, from 17.9% the previous week.
• VA share: Decreased to 12.6%, from 13.0% the week before.
• USDA share: Down slightly to 0.5%.

Mortgage Rates Edge Up

• 30-year fixed rate (conforming ≤ $806,500): Up to 6.82% from 6.77% the week before.
• 30-year jumbo rate (> $806,500): Up to 6.75% from 6.69% the previous week. “Jumbo rates were lower than conventional rates for the third straight week,” Kan noted.
• 30-year FHA: Up to 6.52% from 6.51% the prior week.
• 15-year fixed rate: Up to 6.16% from 6.04% the week before.
• 5/1 ARM: Rose to 6.08% from 6.01% the previous week.

The survey reflects continued economic anxiety influencing both bond yields and consumer behavior, with mortgage activity pivoting in real time as borrowers navigate affordability concerns and fluctuating rates.

The MBA’s weekly survey, which covers U.S. retail residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer-direct channels, has been tracking mortgage trends since 1990.