There’s Good & Bad News On The Horizon

There will be a real estate slump, but the big cities are coming out much better

Steve Goode

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It’s not a hot take to say that the second half of 2022 was tough on loan originators around the country and in the Lone Star State. Last year mortgage rates and inflation jumped to four-decade highs, causing affordability for prospective homebuyers to drop as typical families were forced to spend more on goods, services and rent and save less for down payments on a mortgage. Housing prices were still elevated though as demand continued to surpass supply, further pricing potential buyers out of the market.

As a result, existing home sales experienced slumped to 2011 levels at about 4.4 million, compared to 6.1 million in 2021 and the share of first-time home buyers shrunk to an all-time low of 26%, compared to 34% the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

THE BAD NEWS FOR 2023

In their On The Horizon: Markets to Watch in 2023 and Beyond report, the folks at NAR are calling for a slow turn around this year due to a variety of factors. The country’s largest trade association’s experts are forecasting that existing-home sales will rebound slightly even as the median price of those homes will increase slightly from 2022.

Their forecast is also for the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage to hang around 5.7%, which could bring first-time home buyers back into the market. However, higher mortgage rates will dissuade current homeowners, who bought at much lower rates, from considering a move resulting in a continued limited supply and higher prices. Single family housing starts are also expected to be down, according to NAR researchers. Oh, and don’t expect 3% rates again anytime soon.

Forecast is for the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage to hang around 5.7%, which could bring first-time home buyers back into the market.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR 2023

The researchers at NAR believe that, like politics, all real estate is local. With that in mind the association compiled a list of the top ten markets in 179 metro areas that it believes will outperform the industry in general. To determine which markets would make the list, they used data from NAR, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the USPS and realtor.com.

Researchers tracked 10 indicators, including: NAR’s Housing Affordability Index, which shows how much above or below the qualifying income the typical family earns. An HAI higher than 100 shows that the typical family earns more than the qualifying income. An HAI higher than the national average also indicates more affordability; the share of renters who can afford to buy the typical home; job growth; growth of information jobs, whose workers are paid about 50% more than the average employee; share of information industry in the local GDP; population change; share of inbound moves from January to September 2022; change of active listings October 2022 to October 2021; share of workers working from home; and the NAR housing shortage tracker.

TWO FOR TEXAS

The Atlanta metro market came out on top of the list followed by Raleigh, but Dallas-Fort-Worth-Arlington landed the third spot and San Antonio-New Braunfels cracked the top 10, coming in at 9th, just behind Jacksonville and ahead of Knoxville.

Of Dallas, which ranked ahead of the national average on every indicator except for growth of information jobs, researchers said the area is experiencing a growth of tech workers with many start-ups moving to the area. Housing was also more affordable than nationally and there are more options available.

Regarding the San Antonio-New Braunfels market, researchers noted that while Texas is comparatively tax-friendly, the home of the Alamo is more affordable than other areas statewide.

“The qualifying income for a median-priced home here is about $85,000 compared to $130,000 in Austin,” researchers said. “With a growing influx of tech workers, this is another area that is expected to outperform in 2023.”