Data through November 2014, released by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices continued to show an increase in default rates. The national composite posted 1.07 percent in November, up one basis point from October 2014. For the fourth consecutive month, the first mortgage default rate rose one basis point, to 0.97 percent in November. The second mortgage default also rose one basis point from its historical low in October to 0.48 percent. The bank card rate set a new historical low again this month with a reported rate of 2.59 percent, down one basis point from the previous month.
“The composite default rate continues to show very little movement, remaining close to one percent. The default rate on autos is up slightly from last summer’s low but below levels of a year earlier. Default rates for bank credit cards are at their lowest levels since the series began in 2004 while first mortgage defaults are up very slightly from summer lows.” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index
Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Key economic factors favor the consumer: Oil and gasoline prices are down, debt services ratios–the proportion of income the average house uses to cover debt payments–are close to record lows, inflation is low and the economy is finally seeing hints of wage growth.
“Chicago, Los Angeles and New York all reported default rate decreases in November. Chicago reported a default rate of 1.11 percent, a new historical low. Los Angeles decreased four basis points to 0.80 percent, while New York decreased by one basis point to 0.98 percent, its fourth consecutive decrease. Dallas and Miami both saw their default rates increase in November. Dallas posted a 1.03 percent rate, while Miami reported a 1.46 percent default rate, up 20 basis points from October. Despite the recent trend, all five cities–Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami and New York–still remain below rates seen a year ago.”
