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ARM Prepayments Highest Since 2007

Phil Hall
Jul 01, 2019
Photo credit: Getty Images/gan chaonan

Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) prepayments hit their highest levels in 12 years during June, according to new data from Black Knight Inc.
 
The company also noted that prepays on 2018 vintage loans were up by more than 300 percent over the prior four months. As of June 27, Black Knight estimated there were 1.5 million potential refinance candidates in the 2018 vintage alone, matching the total of potential refinance candidates in the 2013-2017 vintages combined.
 
“Overall, prepayment activity–largely driven by home sales and mortgage refinances–has more than doubled over the past four months,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. “It’s now at the highest levels we’ve seen since the fall of 2016, when rates began their steep upward climb. While we’ve observed increases across nearly every investor type, product type, credit score bucket and vintage, some changes stand out. For instance, prepayments among fixed-rate loans have hewed close to the overall market average, rising by more than two times over the past four months. However, ARM prepayment rates have now jumped to their highest level since 2007 as borrowers have sought to shed the uncertainty of their adjustable-rate products for the security of a low, fixed interest rate over the long haul.”
 
Graboske added that “some 8.2 million homeowners with mortgages could now both benefit from and likely qualify for a refinance, including more than 35 percent of those who took out their mortgages just last year. Early estimates suggest closed refinances rose by more than 30 percent from April 2019, with May’s volumes estimated to be three times higher than the 10-year low seen in November 2018.”
 
Black Knight also reported that approximately 44 million homeowners with mortgages have more than 20 percent equity in their home. With a combined $5.98 trillion, that works out to an average of $136,00 per borrower with tappable equity. While this level is near last summer’s all-time high of $6.06 trillion, Black Knight also observed the annual growth rate slowed to three percent in the first quarter, down from five percent in the prior quarter and 16 percent.

 
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