A new analysis from Redfin shows a historically large imbalance between home sellers and buyers in the U.S. housing market, one which significantly strengthens buyers’ negotiating leverage. In December 2025, home sellers outnumbered buyers by an estimated 47.1%, or about 631,535 more sellers than buyers — the widest gap in records going back to 2013.
Redfin defines a “buyer’s market” as one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. Under this metric, the national market has functioned as a buyer’s market since May 2024, with December’s margin representing the largest monthly increase since September 2022.
The imbalance reflects a sharp decline in prospective buyers, who dropped 5.9% month-over-month in December to an estimated 1.34 million — the lowest level reported on record. While the number of home sellers also declined slightly (down 1.1% to roughly 1.97 million), sellers have not retreated as quickly as buyers. Year-over-year, buyer numbers fell 11.8%, while seller counts rose 3.9%.
Market conditions varied regionally, with Sun Belt metros such as Austin, Texas; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; and Nashville, Tennessee exhibiting the strongest buyer’s markets, with sellers outnumbering buyers by more than 100% in some areas. In contrast, a handful of markets — primarily in the Northeast and Midwest — remained seller-favored, including Nassau County, New York.
“Some home sellers are underwater because Dallas does not have enough housing demand to meet supply, which hit a record high this year,” said local Redfin Premier Real Estate Agent Connie Durnal. “I have one seller who overpaid for his home at the peak of the pandemic market and is now taking a 10% loss. He’s being realistic about the fact that the market has shifted in buyers’ favor, but a lot of sellers are in denial and won’t budge on price. If you don’t price your home reasonably, it will sit on the market.”
Regionally, Dallas, Texas, for example, had an estimated 86.8% more sellers than buyers in the market last month — one of the biggest imbalances among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. That may be partly because the area has seen so much housing construction in recent years. The median home sale price in Dallas fell 7.6% year-over-year in December — the largest decline among the top 50 metros. Nationally, home prices rose 0.1% — the slowest growth since June 2023.
Economic factors, such as elevated home prices, high mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty have discouraged buyer participation, even as recent modest declines in mortgage rates could entice some buyers back into the market.
Industry observers note that this seller-heavy market gives qualified buyers greater choice and negotiating power, although affordability constraints continue to limit broad participation.
