Builders stepped on the gas in March — but they’re not committing as aggressively to what comes next.
According to the latest New Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, privately owned housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000, up 10.8% from February’s revised 1,356,000 and 10.8% above the March 2025 pace of 1,355,000. Single-family starts climbed to 1,032,000, a 9.7% increase month over month, pushing activity back above the one-million mark.
The gain follows a softer February, when starts were 3.0% below January’s revised 1,398,000 pace, highlighting the volatility in recent construction activity.
At the same time, the forward pipeline is moving in the opposite direction.
Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,372,000, down 10.8% from February’s revised 1,538,000 and 7.4% below the March 2025 level of 1,481,000. Single-family permits declined 3.8% to 895,000.
That pullback comes just one month after permits had jumped 11.0% from January’s revised 1,386,000, reinforcing how uneven builder planning has become.
Completions data underscores the imbalance. Privately owned housing completions came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000, essentially unchanged from February’s revised 1,364,000, but 12.8% lower than the March 2025 pace of 1,566,000. Single-family completions fell 4.8% month over month to 896,000, and follow a February level that was already 6.3% below January’s 1,455,000.
Multifamily activity showed similar inconsistency across the pipeline. Starts for buildings with five units or more were 446,000, compared to 427,000 in permits and 452,000 in completions, reflecting uneven movement between new project approvals, construction starts and finished delivery.
For mortgage professionals, the takeaway isn’t just that construction activity increased; it’s that the pipeline is out of sync.
Starts are accelerating in the near term, suggesting more homes moving into the construction phase and potentially into the purchase pipeline in the months ahead. But the drop in permits points to a thinner layer of future supply behind it, while completions — still running well below last year’s pace — indicate that inventory is not reaching the market fast enough to materially shift supply conditions.
In practical terms, the data points to more near-term opportunity tied to homes already in the pipeline, paired with less visibility into sustained new construction volume — and continued constraints on available inventory where it matters most.
