Tide Turning In Favor Of Homebuyers As Seller Competition Increases – NMP Skip to main content

Tide Turning In Favor Of Homebuyers As Seller Competition Increases

Katie Jensen
Aug 03, 2022
home shopping.

'The current market environment is showing some initial signs of cooling.'

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • Contract volume and net new listing volume experienced the largest off-seasonal decrease since initial COVID-19 lockdowns as a result of recent interest rate shocks.
  • Year-over-year change in net new inventory, however, was positive for all price bins above $200k.
  • Year-over-year volume of price drops are up 110%, as would-be sellers face competition among smaller pool of buyers.

Housing market activity continues to slow on the heels of economic uncertainty, according to the latest HouseCanary report. Today, HouseCanary released its latest Market Pulse report, comparing data between July 2021 and July 2022. 

“In July, economic uncertainty and another steep interest rate hike from the Fed appeared to have impacted both seller and buyer behavior,” said Jeremy Sicklick, co-founder and CEO of HouseCanary. “On one hand, elevated rates have contributed to a decrease in new net listing volume, with would-be sellers sitting on high amounts of equity and locked-in low mortgage rates. On the other hand, demand has decreased also, due in part to the sharp increase in interest rates, which had deterred potential buyers.”

Listings Under Contract

Since July 2021 there have been 3.25 million net new listings placed on the market — an 8.6% decrease compared to last year, HouseCanary said. 

Broken down by home price, here are the percentage of net new listings:

  • $0-$200,000: 14.7%
  • $200,000-$400,000: 37.8%
  • $400,000-$600,000: 23.8%
  • $600,000-$1 million: 15.8%
  • >$1 million: 7.9%

The percentage change in net new listings activity over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price:

  • $0-$200,000: -25.2%
  • $200,000-$400,000: -14.7%
  • $400,000-$600,000: +12.1%
  • $600,000-$1 million: +17.3%
  • >$1 million: +13.5%

Contract volume and net new listing volume experienced the largest off-seasonal decrease since initial COVID-19 lockdowns, as a result of recent interest rate shocks, the report states. However, year-over-year change in net new inventory was positive for all price levels above $200,000, it said.

Monthly Contract Volume (Single-Family Detached Homes):

Monthly new listing volume was down 9% compared to July 2021, the reports said. In July 2022, there were 323,484 net new listings placed on the market, a 17.8% decrease year-over-year. 

The percentage change in net new listing volume compared to July 2021, broken down by home price: 

  • $0-$200,000: -32.3%
  • $200,000-$400,000: -24.2%
  • $400,000-$600,000 -7.0%
  • $600,000-$1 million: -2.8%
  • >$1 million: -6.4%

Median Listing Price Activity (Single-Family Detached Homes):

For the week ending July 29, 2022, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $441,156, a 13.7% increase year-over-year, the report said.

For the week ending on July 29, 2022, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $414,147, an 8.4% increase year-over-year.

The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down by 1.4% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings has decreased by 2.1% month-over-month.

Year-over-year volume of price drops are up 110%, as would-be sellers face competition among smaller pool of buyers.

“Consequently, these opposing forces have pushed price growth into negative territory, even though prices remain at a record high and the nationwide supply shortage we have experienced since 2020 persists,” Sicklick said. “The current market environment is showing some initial signs of cooling and could potentially signal a normalization of supply and demand in the coming months."

Looking forward, he added, "we are monitoring for any disruption of balance between low demand and low supply, particularly anything that could lead to a significant increase in supply with no reduction in rates that would set the market up for substantial price decreases.”

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