What’s a few years here or there?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) grabbed all the headlines when it reported recently that the median age of first-time home buyers has reached 40-years-old. But other market watchers say differently, and the median age of rookie buyers is now in the low 30s.
Citing numerous sources, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) examined the topic of the nation’s first-time home buyers, noting that age and other profile factors “are incredibly important" to analysts and policymakers who are focused on housing.
The commentary says, essentially, that NAR got it wrong, that its sample was so small as to be largely useless.
“Most large-scale data sources tell a different story,” the MBA said.
Using a mail survey with 6,103 respondents, the trade group reported that the median age of a first-time home buyer was 40 this year, up from 38 last year, and continuing a trend of an increasing first-time buyer age that began in 2014, when the median age was 31.
But the National Mortgage Database, which includes millions of mortgage records, showed a much smaller increase, with the median age increasing from 30 to 33 through 2024, then decreasing to 32 last year.
At the same time, data from Cotality, based on millions of mortgage applications, show that the median age has been essentially flat at 32. And estimates cited in a Washington Post article provided by analysts using American Housing Survey (AHS) data from the Census Bureau showed similarly flat trends, with medians of 33 in 2023, the most recent year for which information is available.
Furthermore, from a late summer analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using data from the Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, the median age of rookie buyers in 2016, 2019, and 2024 was 32, 33, and 33, respectively.
“Our analysis of these data indicates that the typical first-time home buyer today is likely not much older than one a decade ago,” said MBA economists Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan.
Meanwhile, in another report on the topic, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) also said NAR was way off. Citing the New York Fed’s data, the conservative think tank said the median age of first-timers is “well under” NAR’s figure.
“There is an affordability crisis facing first-time buyers, but one based on home prices, not age,” said AEI’s Edward Pinto, who is co-director of AEI’s Housing Policy Center.
