
Expected Senior Tsunami Just A Trickle

Two-thirds of boomers plan to stay 10+ years or never move, squeezing supply of family-sized homes for younger buyers
To say older people, of which I am one, are stuck in their ways is an understatement. Even when it comes to moving on in their later years, according to new Redfin-sponsored research.
The study of 4,000 people conducted by Ipsos found that one-third of the baby boomers will never sell their current residences and an additional 30% will hold onto their homes for at least a decade. Nearly half the oldest seniors, the so-called Silent Generation, said they’d never sell, period.
That seniors are hanging on to their homes is one reason it’s difficult for younger folk to find affordable houses, especially those large enough to fit a family. Nearly nine in 10 of the homes owned by boomers are single-family homes. The rest are condominium apartments or townhouses.
A 2024 Redfin analysis found that baby boomers are twice as likely to own large homes as millennials. At the same time, more than 70% of millennial and Gen Z homeowners have minor children living at home compared to only 4% of baby boomers.
“With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it’s challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle, says Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “But it’s worth noting that even though many older Americans say they’re not planning to sell, many are likely to eventually [do so] as it becomes harder to live independently and/or keep up with home maintenance.”
There are several financial and lifestyle reasons why older Americans are much more likely than younger Americans to stay put. For one thing, many boomers who own don’t have a financial incentive to sell. For another, they simply prefer to stay put in houses they’ve lived in for an average of 16-plus years.
When asked by pollsters why they’re staying, more than half the boomers said they just like their home and have no reason to move, making that the most commonly cited reason.
The next-most common reasons are financial: 30% said their home is almost or completely paid off, 16% said today’s home prices are too high, and 8% don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate.
Somewhat surprisingly, a small cohort of younger owners said they, too, would never sell. Some 25% of Gen Xers and 21% of millennials/Gen Zers said they’ll remain where they are forever.
Furthermore, one-quarter of millennial and Gen Z renters say they’re not purchasing a home in the near future because they can’t afford a home in an area where they want to live. The next-most common reasons: Financially unprepared for the surprise costs of owning a home, mortgage rates are too high, and inability to save for a down payment.