Home Prices Continue To Outpace Wages, Keeping Affordability Under Pressure – NMP Skip to main content

Home Prices Continue To Outpace Wages, Keeping Affordability Under Pressure

Jan 11, 2026
Home Prices Outpace Wages

A modest late-year dip in mortgage rates brought limited relief, but home affordability remains worse than historic norms nationwide

ATTOM’s Q4 Home Affordability Report paints a picture of persistent strain for prospective homebuyers across the U.S., even as modest improvements emerged late in the year. The Irvine, California-based analytics firm found that in 99% of the 594 counties analyzed, median-priced single-family homes and condos remained less affordable than historical norms, continuing a multi-quarter trend of affordability challenges. 

While the national median home price held near a record high of approximately $365,185, typical wage growth continued to lag behind, constraining buying power for many households. Over the past five years, home prices rose about 54%, compared with a 29% increase in typical wages, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data used in the report. 

Despite these pressures, indicators in Q4 pointed to slight relief. In 86% of counties, homes were more affordable than in Q3 of 2025, a shift attributed in part to modestly lower mortgage rates. Average interest on a 30-year fixed mortgage (FRM) fell from roughly 6.34% in early October to about 6.15% by year-end.

A modest late-year dip in mortgage rates brought limited relief, but home affordability remains worse than historic norms nationwide

“Many Americans were priced out of buying a home in 2025, and affordability remains worse than historic norms in most markets,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “Still, modest, quarter-over-quarter affordability improvements in many markets at the end of the year offered some encouragement. Over the past five years, home price growth has nearly doubled wage growth, meaning home buying power in 2026 will depend not only on whether prices level off or decline, but also on mortgage rates and broader economic conditions.”

Affordability Metrics Remain High

ATTOM’s affordability calculation incorporates major homeownership costs — mortgage payments, mortgage insurance, property taxes, and homeowner’s insurance — relative to typical wages, assuming a standard 20% downpayment and a 28% front-end debt-to-income ratio. In 74.1% of counties, these expenses still consumed more than 28% of local wages, exceeding traditional affordability benchmarks. 

On a national basis, typical monthly ownership costs in Q4 would have absorbed about 31.4% of an average worker’s wages. In nearly 30% of markets, these costs exceeded 43% of wages, a level often considered seriously unaffordable.

Regional and Local Trends

Affordability challenges were especially acute in parts of California and New York. Kings County, New York (Brooklyn) stood out as the least affordable, with required housing costs exceeding 100% of typical wages. Other high-strain counties included Marin and Santa Cruz in California, as well as Orange and Monterey Counties. 

In contrast, several populous counties including Cook County, Illinois; Harris County, Texas; and Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania remained relatively more affordable, with homeownership expenses consuming a smaller share of typical local earnings.

What Lies Ahead?

Analysts say homebuying power in 2026 will hinge on how mortgage rates and economic conditions evolve. Though the recent reduction in borrowing costs offers some relief, affordability continues to lag long-term historical norms, keeping overall homeownership out of reach for many Americans.
 

About the author
Published
Jan 11, 2026
Just 22% Of Homebuyers Are First-Timers As Cash Purchases Rise

NAR finds nearly one-third of repeat buyers pay cash, narrowing the pool of financed purchase transactions for lenders

Nov 06, 2026
Redfin: Homebuyers Gain Leverage, But Pending Sales Keep Sliding

Pending sales fall 16.4% from a year ago despite lower home prices and mortgage payments, as sellers retreat from a weakening market

Nov 05, 2026
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Purchase Originations Fall As Overall Volume Rises

TransUnion finds purchase lending grew 7.1% in Q2, but loans associated with the two mortgage giants declined even as refinancing gained momentum

Nov 05, 2026
Home Contract Signings Hit Record October Low, Falling 17%

Realtor.com reports a sharp decline in purchase activity as higher rates erode borrowing power

Nov 04, 2026
MBA: Mortgage Payments Climb Despite Smaller Loan Amounts

September's $53 increase ended three months of payment relief, with affordability deteriorating in 39 states

Oct 30, 2026
Fannie, Freddie Credit-Loss Provisions Nearly Quadruple Despite Strong Profits

The mortgage giants recorded a combined $1.94 billion in third-quarter provisions, with higher projected rates extending credit exposure and signs of stress emerging among newer loans

Oct 30, 2026