Mortgage lenders largely expect origination volume to improve during the second half of 2026, but they are not preparing for that growth by broadly expanding their operations.
Instead, lenders intend to push more production through their existing sales teams, selectively recruit experienced loan officers, and reduce the cost of originating each loan, according to The Mortgage Collaborative’s June 2026 Pulse of the Network survey.
89% of respondents expect origination volume to rise in the second half of the year, while 83% said their companies are focused on growth. Most anticipate volume gains between 5% and 20%, although 17% expect a more significant increase.
The growth strategy, however, remains disciplined. Three-quarters of respondents said their primary approach will be increasing production from their current sales teams, while 64% plan to recruit experienced LOs.
“The results show a membership that is more confident about volume in the second half of the year, but still disciplined about how they get there,” said Jodi Hall, president and CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative. “Members are prioritizing production from their current teams and technology investment over expansion, and they are asking specific questions about AI governance and per-loan costs.”
More Production From The Same Infrastructure
The survey suggests lenders are preparing for a better production environment without assuming enough of a recovery to justify substantially higher fixed costs.
Reducing loan production costs was the top operational priority for 86% of respondents. Vendor and technology consolidation followed at 64%, while 56% identified reducing turn times as a priority.
Lenders are also directing their technology spending toward the sales force. Three-quarters of respondents said they are investing in technology to improve LO productivity, and 72% plan to improve compensation and incentive structures to retain top performers.
For mortgage bankers, those findings point to increased pressure on the economics of individual branches and producers. Lenders may be willing to compete for experienced LOs, but they also expect those recruits — and their existing teams — to deliver volume without a corresponding increase in operational expense.
That combination could intensify competition for producers with established referral networks and portable books of business. It may also place greater scrutiny on LO compensation plans, technology adoption, and the amount of operational support required to close each loan.
Elevated interest rates, limited housing inventory, and margin compression remain the leading obstacles to lenders’ growth plans.
AI Interest Outpaces Deployment
Technology ranked as lenders’ second-highest strategic priority, although most respondents remain in the evaluation stage with artificial intelligence.
Eighty-three percent said they are evaluating AI tools across their businesses, but only 17% have deployed AI in live production workflows. One-quarter identified a lack of trust in AI-generated output as the primary obstacle to adoption.
The gap indicates that lenders remain interested in AI’s potential to improve productivity and reduce expenses, but few are prepared to depend on it in active lending operations.
Compliance concerns are contributing to that caution. Automated decisioning now consumes more compliance resources than any other area for 75% of respondents. Nearly half expressed concern about fair-lending risk associated with AI decisioning, while 22% said their organizations have not fully assessed that risk.
State-level regulatory complexity also remains a significant burden, with 53% of respondents describing it as a meaningful drain on resources.
Recapture And Non-QM Emerge As Opportunities
Borrower retention and recapture ranked as the leading secondary-market priority for 75% of respondents, reflecting expectations that gradually declining interest rates could create additional opportunities among existing customers.
Seventy-two percent are working to broaden their investor and agency relationships, while 69% are strengthening post-closing processes.
Respondents identified conventional purchase mortgages and Non-QM lending as the two largest opportunities for volume growth during the remainder of 2026.
That mix suggests lenders are not relying exclusively on a broad refinance rebound. Their plans encompass purchase production, expanded access to non-agency products, and the ability to recapture borrowers when individual loans become eligible for refinancing.
TMC conducts its Pulse of the Network survey twice annually among independent mortgage banks, credit unions, and depository institutions. The organization said the findings inform its lender working groups, benchmarking initiatives, collaboration programs, and conference programming.
*This article was primarily written by a human author. AI tools were used in a limited capacity for research assistance or light editing.
