Rate Lock Float Downs
Whereas buydown products enter the market to help affordability when rates aren’t expected to drop in the near future, rate lock float downs are a better tool when rates may drop in 60-90 days, or when borrowers want peace of mind in the case of an interest-rate rally during the lock period.
Signaling from the Federal Reserve about higher rates for longer complicates the conversation with borrowers about float downs. However, because the market generally anticipates rate cuts to happen sometime this summer, float downs may be an effective strategy for locking-in borrowers who would otherwise hold out for mortgage rates to officially drop.
Borrowers purchase the float down option like a mortgage rate insurance policy – they are buying the option to “float down” their locked rate if mortgage rates do decline during the locking period. For this reason, float downs are most effective in conjunction with longer locking periods.
Like buydowns, the mechanism for offering rate lock float downs is simple: lenders charge an upfront fee that is typically 0.25%-1% of the loan amount. So, buying the float down option for a $400,000 loan would cost the borrower $1,000-$4,000. Depending on the lender, the option “activates” if mortgage rates drop by a set percentage (typically 0.125%-0.25%) during the locking period.
Hedging Rate-Reduced Loans
Over the past few months, the share of buydowns issued by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has been increasing, reaching roughly 6%-7% of all issued pools in January. It is a similar story for government-insured issuance (FHA, VA, and USDA), with the share of buydowns increasing to 7.5% in January.
Chart 3 shows some of the liquid coupons from the latest issuance in Feb 2024.
However, not all loans can be bought down, and those restrictions on buydown mortgages are intended to limit investor risk. Because of these restrictions, not all lenders find it worthwhile to offer buydown options, given the rate environment and lenders’ core borrower base.
For example, all buydown mortgages have to be underwritten to the regular mortgage rate – the rate the borrower will pay at the end of the buydown period. Within the conventional universe, investor loans and cash-out refinance are not eligible for buydowns. Similarly, FHA buydowns are only available for fixed-rate purchase loans.
Seller buydowns come with their own risks for both the borrower and investors. If mortgage rates remain elevated, or even increase, the borrower will not be able to refinance the loan and their payment will increase at the end of the buydown period. Because many borrowers purchase buydowns with the intention of refinancing after the buydown period ends, investors should understand that prepayment risk is minimal during the buydown period, yet increases substantially after the buydown period ends.
Although the share of buydown loans has risen recently, analysts do not see systemic risks arising from increased issuance so long as the share of new issuance does not exceed 10%.
Complexities associated with hedging float-down loans is a primary reason not every lender offers float down options to borrowers. Typically, float downs require the use of options on U.S. Treasury bonds (Treasuries) or mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to hedge – both of which have their own pros and cons as hedging tools.
While MBS options perfectly negate the interest-rate risk associated with float-down loans, they are an over-the-counter (OTC) product that requires dealer relationships and substantial minimum trading amounts. Treasury options, on the other hand, allow small trading amounts, but fail to completely offset the interest-rate risk, meaning lenders are still on the hook for the Treasury-Mortgage basis risk – which can be significant in highly volatile environments.