Home Prices Are Still Rising, But More Metros Are Losing Momentum

Home prices are still higher than they were a year ago in most of the country. In a growing number of markets, though, they have been falling more recently.

National single-family prices rose 1.8% year over year in August, a slight acceleration from July’s 1.6% annual gain, according to Cotality’s latest Home Price Index. Prices edged down 0.1% from July. More strikingly, 31 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas posted negative price movement over the latest three months, compared with 19 in July.

San Francisco captures the difference between the two views. Its prices were up 7% from August 2025, but down 2.7% over the latest three months. The annual figure describes how much prices have changed since last summer; the shorter measure offers a closer look at the market a buyer is entering now.

That distinction matters when an originator is working through a purchase with a buyer and real estate agent. A strong annual gain does not settle how much competition a particular listing faces today, or whether its asking price reflects recent sales. The answer still depends on the property and its local market.

The national numbers also conceal a divide between types of homes. Detached single-family prices increased 2.1% from a year earlier, while prices for attached homes, including condos and townhomes, rose just 0.1%. Cotality pointed to rising homeowners association fees, special assessments, and insurance costs as pressures on the condo market. For a borrower comparing a condo with a detached house, the purchase price is only part of the monthly payment.

Geography tells a similarly uneven story. Illinois had the strongest annual price growth among states at 6.8%, followed by Connecticut at 6.3%. Indiana and New Jersey each posted gains of 5.6%. Cotality said limited listings and new construction continued to support prices in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Texas and Hawaii each recorded annual declines of 0.7%, while Washington fell 0.4%.

Cotality also identified Buffalo, New York; Cambridge and Worcester, Massachusetts; Providence, Rhode Island; and St. Petersburg, Florida among the metros at greatest risk of price declines over the next 12 months. That is a forecast, not a report that prices have already fallen in those markets.

NMP reported last month on a related puzzle: Redfin counted far more sellers than buyers in August, yet its national price index continued to rise. Cotality’s figures add a view of where prices have weakened over a shorter period. The two companies use different indexes, so their national growth rates should not be read as directly comparable.

Cotality expects month-to-month price declines through the winter and forecasts 1.3% appreciation for 2026. Its August index largely reflects transactions that were locked before rates rose sharply late that month, the company said. September’s price data, due Nov. 3, will give a clearer look at the market after that increase.