U.S. home prices increased 0.25% from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest Redfin Home Price Index. Prices were up 3.7% from a year earlier, the index’s fastest annual growth rate in a year.
The increase came during what Redfin described as the strongest buyer’s market in its records. The brokerage, which is owned by Rocket Companies, counted 58% more home sellers than buyers nationwide in August. In parts of the Sun Belt, sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one.
That imbalance would ordinarily be expected to push prices lower. Instead, it is giving buyers more room to negotiate while many sellers resist accepting steep discounts.
For loan originators, that puts more emphasis on the full structure of a purchase offer. A seller-paid rate buydown, closing-cost contribution, or repair credit may deliver more immediate relief than waiting for a broad decline in home prices that has yet to materialize.
NMP previously reported that existing-home inventory reached its highest level since 2019, while sales fell to their slowest pace in 14 months. More supply gave buyers additional choices but did not solve the payment problem created by elevated prices and mortgage rates.
Redfin’s latest data adds another piece to that picture: Even a historically wide gap between sellers and buyers has not been enough to drive national prices down.
Sellers Are Holding The Line
Redfin attributed some of that resilience to homeowners with substantial equity and little pressure to accept a deeply discounted offer.
An owner who cannot get the desired price may leave the property on the market, withdraw it, or offer concessions instead. That can weaken transaction volume before it produces a comparable decline in recorded sale prices.
The Redfin index covers completed repeat sales of single-family homes. It therefore captures the prices of homes that changed hands, not listings that failed to sell or the value of concessions negotiated alongside the purchase price.
“The slowing price growth is good news for buyers because it means waiting for the right home is less likely to come with a rapidly rising price tag,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics. “Buyers can afford to be choosy and negotiate.”
National price growth has moderated only slightly. Prices increased 0.27% in June, 0.26% in July and 0.25% in August. The latest monthly increase translates to an annualized pace of approximately 3%, suggesting slower appreciation rather than an approaching nationwide decline.
That leaves originators with a market that is more negotiable before it has become substantially more affordable.
NMP reported in August that more listings and fewer signed contracts were putting rate buydowns in play. Seller assistance can reduce a borrower’s upfront expense or monthly payment even when the recorded sale price remains relatively firm.
Texas Records Most Annual Declines
The national figure also conceals sharp differences among local markets.
Prices declined from a year earlier in only five of the 50 major metros tracked by Redfin. Four were in Texas:
- Dallas: down 1.4%
- Austin: down 1.1%
- Fort Worth: down 0.7%
- San Antonio: down 0.4%
Seattle recorded the other annual decline, falling 0.1%.
Those markets are among the most buyer-friendly in the country, according to Redfin. Austin also tied Charlotte, North Carolina for the largest monthly decline in August, with prices falling 0.7%.
But even the Texas data were not uniform. San Antonio prices increased 0.9% from July, despite remaining below their year-earlier level. Houston prices fell 0.3% during the month but were still up 0.2% annually.
The strongest monthly appreciation occurred in St. Louis, where prices increased 1.1%, followed by Pittsburgh at 1%. San Antonio, San Jose, and Baltimore each recorded increases of 0.9%.
Florida shows both ends of the market
Florida’s results were similarly divided.
West Palm Beach posted the second-largest annual increase among the metros studied, rising 10.4%. Miami prices increased 8%, and Tampa recorded a 4.1% gain.
But Fort Lauderdale prices declined 0.5% from July, while Jacksonville’s annual increase was just 0.4%.
Redfin said demand from affluent buyers in Florida, along with strength in San Francisco’s technology-driven market, helped support prices. San Francisco led the country with a 12% annual increase.
Redfin’s index gives equal weight to repeat-sale observations rather than placing greater weight on more expensive properties. The strength of luxury-oriented markets therefore does not mean a high-priced sale automatically carries greater influence in the index.
Instead, the metro figures reinforce how little the national average tells an originator about an individual borrower’s negotiating position.
More Leverage Does Not Mean Affordable
A buyer’s market describes the balance between available sellers and active buyers. It does not necessarily mean the resulting homes or monthly payments are affordable.
Borrowers can have more properties to consider, face fewer bidding wars, and gain greater negotiating power while still struggling to qualify because of home prices, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance costs.
That tension is particularly relevant heading into what Realtor.com identified as the most buyer-friendly week of 2026. Buyers may encounter more listings, fewer competitors, and more motivated sellers, but preapprovals and payment estimates still need to reflect current rates.
For originators, the opening lies in identifying where seller leverage has weakened, then showing borrowers how price, concessions, and financing terms work together. Waiting for the national price index to turn negative may leave workable deals on the table.
