The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced today that housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.452 million, which is 3.9% above the downward revised June estimate of 1.398 million and 5.9% above the July 2022 rate of 1.371 million.
“Higher mortgage rates threaten affordability and builder supply-side challenges remain, but the housing market remains fundamentally underbuilt and existing homeowners aren't moving. While builders can’t make existing homeowners move, they can add more new homes to the housing stock,” said First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi.
Kushi also observed, “Demographic tailwinds from millennials continuing to age into their prime home-buying years and a lack of existing-home inventory means that new-home construction is essential in meeting shelter demand.”
Parker Ross, global chief economist at Arch Capital Group, and former JPM / AIG / HUD economist, posted on Twitter, “July housing starts and permits were roughly in-line with expectations and up only slightly compared with June. However, this masks the underlying trends, which reflects single-family construction (SF) still in a solid recovery uptrend and multifamily (MF) continuing to cool. SF and MF permits are nearly back to their respective pre-COVID paces but heading in opposite directions ... Based on yesterday's Aug NAHB survey, the pace of the SF rebound should slow this month.”
Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 0.1% above the revised June rate of 1,441,000 but is 13.0% below the July 2022 rate of 1,658,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate of 930,000; this is 0.6% above the revised June figure of 924,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 464,000 in July.
Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,452,000. This is 3.9% (±16.0%) above the revised June estimate of 1,398,000 and is 5.9% (±16.1%)* above the July 2022 rate of 1,371,000. Single‐family housing starts in July were at a rate of 983,000; this is 6.7% (±13.0%) above the revised June figure of 921,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 460,000.
Housing Completions
Privately‐owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 11.8% (±7.8%) below the revised June estimate of 1,498,000 and is 5.4% (±11.1%) below the July 2022 rate of 1,396,000. Single‐family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,018,000; this is 1.3% (±11.6%) above the revised June rate of 1,005,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 297,000.
