To those looking at our industry from the outside, it must look rather frightening. With more stories about big company layoffs and mortgage lenders declaring bankruptcy or exiting the business in the face of rapidly falling loan volumes and tightening margins. To someone who doesn’t understand the cyclical nature of our business, it must look like the beginning of a crash.
To those who recently entered the mortgage business, it may look very much like a crash, but industry veterans have been watching it happen since at least early February when industry data clearly showed volumes were falling. By April, sources were saying that refinance volume had all but dried up.
By late spring, most lenders had begun executing their pivots to the purchase money market. Any lender who wasn’t thinking about moving away from refi workflows by June was probably already too late.
But for those who were taking action, this is turning out to be just another industry downturn. In fact, if the Mortgage Bankers Association’s forecast is realized and the industry originates nearly $2.5 trillion in new loans this year, it will be one of the best years in the history of the business.
That may be a hard point to focus on while the industry watches volume tumble from its $4+ trillion peak in 2021. Leaders know that the way you succeed through a downturn is by leaning in.