There’s no shortage of insecurity and uncertainty with the U.S. economy at present, particularly since President Trump’s tariffs have been on again, off again, moving forward in some fashion. As far as the mortgage industry is concerned, though, at least one exec whose opinion carries some weight believes things are about to turn up, and significantly so.
That would be Mat Ishbia, chairman, president, and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), the nation’s largest mortgage lender.
In a “three points” video posted yesterday on YouTube, Ishbia noted that uncertainty is driving instability in the markets and keeping mortgage interest rates likely higher than they should be. But he made three positive predictions.
• Once tariffs are finalized, interest rates are likely to come down. “When there's uncertainty, you don't get the benefits of sometimes lower rates that we might expect would've happened,” Ishbia said. “With that being said, we do believe that, overall, tariffs will be finalized and confirmed after all the delays and things that happen — and I actually think interest rates will go down because of it.”
• Housing affordability will be at its best in years, making for a strong purchase season. ”As interest rates are steady and housing values aren't going up as crazily and, obviously, people are making more money, there's opportunity,” contended the UWM chief executive.
“There are some new indexes coming out,” he added, that predict affordability of U.S. housing will be the best it's been in years. “So that means borrowers — first-time home buyers, or even move-up buyers — are actually able to buy or move up and take advantage of the housing market in a strong place,” said Ishbia.
• There’ll be over a million more mortgage originations this year versus 2024. Ishbia then addressed loan originators specifically. “More people are doing mortgages, 10% to 12% over last year's first quarter,” he emphasized. “But on top of that, people are expecting over a million more loans to be done this year than last year.”
“So think about that: 1.1 million, 1.2 million, maybe 1.3 million more mortgage originations,” Ishbia continued. “So if that happens, how many are you getting? Are you getting five more, 10 more, 20 more, a hundred more? The opportunity is out there.”
The Flipside
Despite the optimism coming from UWM’s corner, you don’t have to look far to find some alternate views.
“U.S. Economy Goes Into Reverse From Trump’s Abrupt Policy Shifts,” reads a CNN headline from Wednesday, as the news outlet reported the nation has “likely just seen the worst quarter [financially] since Covid.”
And some believe the lack of action and, by and large, assessments of stability in the U.S. economy that’ve come from the Federal Reserve Board are out of touch.
For instance, Michael Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, a real estate services provider and First American Financial Corporation subsidiary, just issued a statement called “A Crisis of Confidence: The Fed’s Posturing Obscures an Economy in Distress.”
“We are not entering a downturn — we've been in one,” Eisenga wrote. “The notion that our current struggles are solely the result of trade tensions is misleading. The economy was already on unstable footing well before the trade war escalated. We are now facing the consequences of structural imbalances and unsustainable monetary policy.”
Meanwhile, monthly housing costs in the U.S. have hit an all-time high amid the aforementioned economic uncertainty, and it’s keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines, according to a report yesterday from real estate brokerage Redfin.
The median U.S. monthly housing payment is at an all-time high of $2,870, due to still-rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates, Redfin’s report reads. And, many Americans “are holding off on major purchases because they’re uncertain about the future of the economy due to things like tariffs and the increasing odds of a recession.”
“Redfin agents in many parts of the country say they’re seeing more action from sellers than buyers,” the report states. “New listings are up 6.1% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 13.7%.”
But, Still
Notably, as UWM’s Ishbia suggested, mortgage rates have begun drifting down somewhat. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, or PMMS, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate averaged 6.76% as of yesterday, which is down five basis points from the prior week when it averaged 6.81%. At this time in 2024, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.22%, significantly higher.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.92% as of yesterday, according to Freddie’s survey, down slightly from the prior week when it averaged 5.94%. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 55 basis points higher at 6.47%.
“In recent weeks, rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have fallen even lower than the first-quarter average of 6.83%,” pointed out Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, Sam Khater. And, it was that lower average rate during the first quarter that helped drive up net income and net worth for the GSE, as reported this week in the company’s Q1 2025 earnings.
