Prospective homebuyers are growing more pessimistic about interest rates, and less inclined to wait for relief.
In Veterans United Home Loans’ latest survey, 57% expect interest rates to rise over the next year, up from 45% a year earlier. Yet the share who would consider waiting for lower mortgage rates before buying fell from 39% to 32%. Their purchase timelines have changed little, suggesting buyers are reconsidering what waiting might get them rather than rushing to close.
Thirty-two percent of respondents to Veterans United Home Loans’ Q3 State of Mind survey said they would consider waiting until mortgage rates drop, down from 39% a year earlier. Meanwhile, 57% expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months, up from 45%.
The findings suggest a change in what prospective buyers expect to accomplish. They offer less evidence that buyers are preparing to close sooner.
“A lot of buyers are coming to terms with the market we have rather than waiting for the market they want,” Chris Birk, vice president of mortgage insight at Veterans United Home Loans, told NMP.
“I think we're seeing that buyers are shifting their expectations after spending years hoping for an improvement in affordability. Some may feel more financially prepared to move forward, while others may worry that waiting won't necessarily put them in a better position.”
Less Willing To Wait, Little Change In Timing
The share intending to purchase within a year remained at 73%, unchanged from Q2 and up from 71% a year earlier. Sixteen percent plan to buy within three months, compared with 19% in Q2 and 16% a year earlier.
NMP’s coverage of the second-quarter survey also found that nearly three-quarters of respondents intended to buy within a year. The latest results extend that pattern while showing less willingness to make falling rates a condition of moving forward.
How Buyers’ Expectations Have Changed
Prospective homebuyers’ rate expectations and purchase intentions across three survey periods.Survey Measure | Q3 2025 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
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Would consider waiting until mortgage rates drop | 39% | 35% | 32% |
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Would consider waiting until home prices drop | 39% | 39% | 33% |
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Expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months | 45% | 54% | 57% |
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Intend to purchase within the next year | 71% | 73% | 73% |
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Source: Veterans United State of Mind quarterly data tables. Results reflect separate survey samples in each quarter, rather than changes tracked among the same individuals.
For an originator, the practical opportunity is to find out whether a prospect’s reason for waiting still applies. The survey does not establish that someone who no longer selects “wait for lower rates” can qualify, has enough cash to close, or will sign a contract.
Affordability remains a constraint. High home prices were cited as a barrier by 43% of respondents, while 37% identified high interest rates. Those figures were 47% and 43%, respectively, in Q2.
An Opening Before The Agent Conversation
Another finding in the detailed tables gives LOs a more direct business angle: 38% of respondents would prefer to begin the homebuying process with a lender, compared with 36% who prefer an agent. Another 26% have no preference.
Among the 343 respondents who prefer starting with a lender, 52% want to understand the interest rate and terms they might qualify for, 49% want to understand their potential monthly payment, and 43% want to know how much they need for a down payment and closing costs.
That creates a specific purpose for a follow-up. An updated payment estimate, cash-to-close calculation, or assessment of available financing can move the conversation further than another rate alert.
“Buyers need help understanding what they can comfortably afford today, how different interest rates affect their monthly payment and what their financing options actually look like,” Birk told NMP. “It's important to have those conversations early so buyers aren't making decisions based on headlines or hypothetical future rate cuts.”
The survey also separates what buyers would consider doing from what might accelerate their plans. Forty-three percent said lower interest rates might prompt them to buy sooner, down from 49% in Q2. Lower home prices were selected by 47%, down from 51%.
Lower rates still have considerable appeal. They simply appear to be losing ground as the event some buyers expect to organize their purchase around.
The VA Opportunity Comes With Its Own Audience
Among the 600 veteran and service-member respondents, 82% said their VA loan benefit puts them at an advantage in today’s market. Seventy-five percent intend to buy within a year, compared with 69% of civilian respondents.
But the quarterly shift in waiting for rates was uneven. The share of military-affiliated respondents who would consider waiting fell from 34% to 31%. Among civilians, it remained at 35%.
For LOs serving eligible military buyers, the results support a financing conversation tailored to the borrower’s benefit and financial position. They do not establish that the benefit caused greater confidence or an earlier purchase timeline.
Birk’s explanation of the broader shift also remained conditional.
“Our survey suggests that more buyers are recognizing there's no guarantee that waiting will deliver a better deal,” he said.
The more revealing finding may be that fewer buyers would wait for lower rates, even though their purchase timelines have barely moved. Some of the prospects in an LO’s pipeline may be less interested in predicting the next rate drop and more interested in knowing whether the home they want is within reach today.
*Sparketing conducted the online survey Sept. 1–15, 2026, among 900 prospective homebuyers, including 600 veterans and service members and 300 civilians.
