Fitch Ratings’ latest “U.S. RMBS Performance Monitor,” released with February 2026 remittance data, indicates a continued rise in 30-day and 90-day delinquencies across nearly all private-label U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) 2.0 sectors.
The Non-Qualified Mortgage (Non-QM)/Non-Prime sector shows elevated delinquency rates compared to historical averages, a trend mortgage professionals must monitor.
The 30-day delinquency rate for Non-QM/Non-Prime 2.0 loans stands at 7.26%, an increase of 118 basis points year-over-year, according to Fitch Ratings. This compares to a 1.09% 30-day delinquency rate for Prime 2.0 loans, which rose 22 basis points year-over-year. Fitch attributes this data to a sector-wide performance shift, particularly for newer loan vintages.
Non-QM Loan Performance Trends
Delinquencies in the Non-QM/Non-Prime 2.0 sector continue to climb, with elevated rates observed for 2023, 2024, and 2025 vintages. The 90-day delinquency rate for 2024 vintages is 3.71%, and for 2025 vintages, it is 1.18%. These figures represent year-over-year increases of 2.31% and 1.18%, respectively, suggesting that newer collateral is deteriorating at a pace similar to that of the 2023 vintage, Fitch reports. The 2023 vintage continues to report a 30-day delinquency rate of 10.95%, up 2.55% year-over-year.
On a loan-age basis, the 2024 and 2025 vintages track closely with the performance of the 2023 vintage. These newer loans are deteriorating faster than 2022 and earlier collateral, according to Fitch. By contrast, the 2023 vintage shows signs of seasoning-related stability, with 90-day delinquencies largely plateauing around the 24-month loan-age mark. Non-QM 90-day delinquencies have risen to 3.61%, which is 71 basis points above the Reperforming Loan (RPL)/Seasoned Performing Loan (SPL) sector. Despite these increases, Fitch states actual losses remain minimal relative to its default expectations for the asset class. Fitch’s ‘Bsf’ rating case default expectation for the 2025 vintage is 17.7%.
Broader Market Delinquencies
Other sectors also show rising delinquency trends. The Prime Jumbo 30-day delinquency rate is 1.09%, up 22 basis points year-over-year, with the 90-day rate at 0.49%, up 15 basis points year-over-year. The 2023 vintage in the Prime 2.0 cohort underperforms the broader group, with a 30-day delinquency rate of 2.57%, an increase of 66 basis points year-over-year. The 2024 and 2025 vintages follow a similar pattern, with 30-day delinquency rates rising to 1.44% and 0.67%, respectively. Fitch has also observed an increase in modifications, shifting loss realization towards modification-related losses rather than liquidation.
The Home Equity sector, including Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) and Closed-End Second (CES) products, shows similar upticks in delinquencies. Current 30-day delinquency rates for HELOCs and CES are 2.24% and 1.36%, respectively, up 26 basis points and 35 basis points year-over-year. Serious delinquencies are also higher, with 90-day delinquency rates at 0.72% for HELOCs, up 27 basis points year-over-year, and 0.46% for CES, up 16 basis points year-over-year. Overall, Home Equity collateral maintains a 30-day delinquency rate of 5.08%, up 42 basis points year-over-year, and a 90-day delinquency rate of 1.31%, down 28 basis points year-over-year.
The Seasoned 2.0 sector has demonstrated stable performance, with 30- and 90-day delinquency rates of 9.25% and 3.08%, respectively, compared with 8.60% and 2.90% in February 2024.
Refinancing Activity
Fitch reports a decline in mortgage rates during Q4 2025 increased refinancing activity across multiple sectors. Prime prepayment rates reached 14.69%, down from a peak of 22.22% in November. Non-QM/Non-Prime prepayments also spiked over the past year, reaching a Constant Prepayment Rate (CPR) of 19.57% in November before moderating to 17.33%.
These trends underscore the importance for mortgage professionals to understand the performance characteristics of different loan products, especially within the Non-QM space. While delinquencies are rising, refinancing activity suggests some borrowers are finding solutions to manage their mortgage obligations. Staying informed on these shifts helps mortgage professionals better assess risk, structure deals, and advise clients on product suitability and potential outcomes. The full Q1 2026 “U.S. RMBS Performance Monitor” is available on the Fitch Ratings website.
