Ten Key Takeaways From ICE’s Monthly Mortgage Monitor

From delinquency trends and refinancing bumps to borrower behavior and region-specific inventory shifts, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) offered a data-packed, comprehensive snapshot of the market in its latest Mortgage Monitor webinar.  

Gunnar Blix, ICE's housing market research manager, unpacked the company’s intel for the mortgage industry. 

Here are 10 of the most important takeaways:

1. Mortgage performance remains stable overall — but normalization is underway.
 

• The national delinquency rate in April ticked up just 1 bps to 3.22%.
• Compared to this time in 2024, delinquencies are up 4.1%, and serious delinquencies are up 14%.
• ICE views this not as a crisis, but a return to normal after record-low delinquencies. 

2. Prepayments are climbing sharply.
 

• Mortgage prepayments are up 19% month-over-month and a striking 35% year-over-year.
• This is being driven, ICE noted, by both seasonal home sales and a small refi “wavelet” when 30-year fixed mortgage rates briefly dropped to the mid-6% range.

3. Foreclosure activity is picking up.
 

• April foreclosure sales hit their highest level in 15 months, especially among VA loans.
• Year-over-year, foreclosure starts are up 13%, sales are up 9%, and active inventory is up 4%.
• Notably, some states such as Florida are seeing markedly higher levels of non-current mortgage activity.

4. Interest rate volatility is shaping borrower behavior. 
 

• After April tariff announcements, mortgage rates whipsawed but recently settled between 6.85% and 6.90%.
• Futures indicate possible relief to around 6.6% by November — but that’s still higher than early April expectations.

5. Home purchase demand has been resilient.
 

• Purchase applications rose 5% over the past four weeks and are up 15% compared to 2024.
• Demand remains highly sensitive to rate fluctuations.

6. Borrowers want deals — and most don’t care about prior lender relationships.
 

• Two out of three borrowers say they would reuse their last lender, yet fewer than one in four are actually retained; it’s a potential opportunity for lenders.
• More than seven out of 10 — 72% — of borrowers cite interest rate as their top priority, and only 25% say they care about having an existing relationship with a lender.
• Most borrowers only consider one or two lenders, so being fast and competitive is critical.

7. Home inventory is rebounding, but still unevenly. 
 

• Nationally, inventory is up 30% compared to 2024; the deficit vs. pre-pandemic levels narrowed to -16% overall.
• Some 37 of the top 100 U.S. markets are now back to pre-2020 inventory levels, with California and Colorado leading the surge.
• The Midwest and Northeast are lagging behind, however, and may not normalize until 2028 or later.

8. Home price growth is cooling fast.
 

• Annual home price growth fell to 2.0% in April and is projected to slow further to 1.6% in May.
• Western markets, especially California, are seeing the sharpest slowdowns and even outright price declines.

9. Home equity has hit record levels, and HELOC activity is ticking up.
 

• Total tappable home equity has reached $11.5 trillion; the average mortgage holder has more than $200,000 available.
• Home equity line of credit (HELOC) withdrawals jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1 2025, and introductory HELOC rates dropped by about 2.5 percentage points over recent quarters.
• Borrowing against equity is becoming more attractive — especially for younger, digital-first homeowners.

10. Opportunity is knocking for mortgage lenders who target smart. 
 

• Borrowers in this economic climate are equity-aware, very interest-rate sensitive, and open to refinancing — if the messaging is right.
• One out of four borrowers is considering a HELOC or equity loan this year.
• ICE emphasized that lenders need smarter, faster outreach, especially digital and mobile-first approaches.