A $73,600 down payment still leaves the average worker short of the income needed to afford the nation’s median-priced home under ATTOM’s latest affordability calculation.
The national median home sales price fell to $368,000 in the third quarter of 2026, down from $375,000 a year earlier, according to ATTOM’s U.S. Home Affordability Report, released Oct. 22. Wage growth also outpaced home-price growth in a majority of the counties studied.
Yet buying that median-priced home with 20% down required annual income of $90,191 to keep major ownership expenses within 28% of income, the report’s affordability guideline. The average annual wage used in the analysis was $79,534.
The difference is $10,657, based on NMP’s calculation using ATTOM’s figures. That shortfall remains after the assumed down payment reduces the mortgage to $294,400.
The findings illustrate the distance between getting a buyer to the closing table with sufficient cash and structuring a payment the household can comfortably carry.
Lower Prices Haven’t Closed The Gap
The national median sales price declined from $370,000 in the second quarter, but prices were still rising in much of the country. Median prices increased year over year in 375 of the 583 counties analyzed, or 64.3%.
Wage growth exceeded home-price growth in 343 counties, or 58.9%. Those markets included Los Angeles County, California; Maricopa County, Arizona; San Diego County, California; Orange County, California; and Miami-Dade County, Florida.
Those favorable shifts had not brought ownership expenses within ATTOM’s affordability guideline across much of the country. Nationally, major monthly expenses on a median-priced home consumed 31.8% of the average worker’s wages.
“Home prices declined nationally and wage growth outpaced price growth in many counties, but those gains were not enough to meaningfully improve affordability across much of the country,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said.
The report’s ownership-cost calculation accounts for mortgage payments and expenses such as property taxes and homeowners insurance. A lower purchase price can reduce the financing burden while still leaving a substantial monthly obligation.
Willingness To Buy Meets The Payment
The findings add a financial constraint to NMP’s coverage of Veterans United’s latest buyer survey, which found prospective buyers less inclined to wait for lower rates, but little change in their purchase timelines.
Together, the reports point to a limit on what changing expectations alone can accomplish. A buyer can become more willing to accept prevailing mortgage rates while still needing a lower-priced property, additional income, or a different financing structure to make the purchase workable.
ATTOM’s findings also provide a useful companion to UWM’s campaign challenging the assumption that buyers need 20% down.
The 20% down payment in ATTOM’s analysis is a modeling assumption, rather than a universal mortgage requirement. Its national example nevertheless shows an income shortfall even after that substantial upfront contribution.
For originators, the distinction is practical: reducing the upfront cash requirement can address one obstacle, while the resulting loan amount and financing terms still determine whether the ongoing payment fits the borrower’s budget.
Two Measures Of Affordability
ATTOM found that homes were less affordable than their own historical averages in 570 of the 583 counties studied, approximately 98%.
A separate calculation found that ownership expenses exceeded the report’s 28% income guideline in 467 counties, or 80.1%.
The first measure compares a market with its past. The second compares modeled ownership expenses on a median-priced home with average local wages. Neither measures the share of prospective borrowers who would be denied a mortgage.
The analysis also uses average worker wages rather than the combined earnings of purchasing households. A household with two earners, a different down payment, or a purchase price below the county median may have a substantially different result.
In 180 counties, or 30.9% of those studied, modeled ownership expenses consumed more than 43% of average wages — a level ATTOM describes as seriously unaffordable.
Local Markets Tell Different Stories
The differences between large markets were substantial.
In Orange County, California, expenses on a median-priced home consumed 92.6% of average wages. The shares were 69.9% in Los Angeles County and 69.6% in San Diego County.
Other populous counties fell within the report’s 28% guideline, including Harris County, Texas, at 20.7%; Dallas County, Texas, at 24.3%; Wayne County, Michigan, at 17.9%; and Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, at 20.2%.
Those differences limit how much a national price decline can tell an originator about a local purchase pipeline. Local prices, wages, and ownership expenses determine how much room a buyer actually gains.
ATTOM’s analysis covered 583 counties with a combined population of 263 million. Counties needed populations of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condominium sales during the quarter to qualify. The analysis paired third-quarter 2026 home prices with first-quarter 2026 wage data, the latest available, and assumed a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20% down.
In the national example, the median home cost $7,000 less than a year earlier. The income needed to afford it still exceeded average wages by more than 13%. For buyers who have already assembled a substantial down payment, the remaining obstacle is the income needed to sustain ownership after closing.
