Older Americans are disproportionately purchasing homes at a higher rate in counties at elevated risk of extreme heat, flooding, and wildfires, compared to younger homebuyers. The implications of this trend have yet to be fully realized by those older buyers or the markets they're... err, flooding.
More than one-third (36.9%) of home purchases made by people aged 65 and older (65+) last year occurred in areas with significant heat risk, compared to 32.3% of purchases by those under 35, new analysis from Redfin indicates.
The trend extends beyond severe heat risk, though. Nearly 13.3% of home purchases by people 65+ were in counties with high flood risk, compared to 9.8% of purchases by younger buyers. Similarly, 3.7% of older buyers’ purchases were in high fire-risk areas, compared to just 2.6% for those under 35.
The pandemic accelerated relocation trends to riskier markets, Freddie Mac research shows, as migration out of urban centers intensified in response to population-density concerns and changes in remote-work requirements.
“They come for the waterfront views and sunny weather,” said Rafael Corrales, a Redfin Premier agent in Miami, discussing retirees’ decisions to move to coastal Florida, “even when presented with inland alternatives that offer lower flood risks and greater affordability.”
Florida has long been a top retirement destination because of its lack of retirement income taxes, for example, but rising insurance costs, homeowners’ association fees, and property taxes — fueled by intensifying natural disasters — are complicating the state's appeal.
Redfin’s analysis reveals the extent of climate vulnerability in areas popular with older buyers. Nearly all homes (96.2%) in counties where buyers aged 65+ received the most mortgages last year face high heat risk, compared to 59.2% in places popular with buyers under 35.
The significant disparity is similar for flood and fire risks. In counties favored by older buyers, 24.6% of homes are at high flood risk, compared to 16% in counties popular with younger buyers. Concerning fire risk, 35.7% of homes in older buyer hotspots are at high risk, compared to 19% in younger buyer areas.
Younger buyers’ mindsets about where to move, and why, are evolving in response to different market pressures than those of the generations of homebuyers who came before. Consecutive hurricanes in Florida this fall, for example, are also shaping homebuyers’ views.
In its survey, Redfin found that more than half of millennials (56%) and half of Gen Zers consider climate change when deciding where to live, compared to just 31% of baby boomers. Younger Americans are also less likely to buy homes in risky areas because they generally gravitate toward major urban job centers, which often face lower climate risks.
Younger generations are more likely to experience the long-term consequences of climate change, and climate change is a prevalent topic in their social and professional circles, Redfin also reports.
Despite the risks, older Americans appear undeterred. The trend identified by Redfin tracks across all income brackets of older buyers, raising concerns about homeowner equity and older Americans’ financial wellness and resilience, particularly as the housing market enters a period of sustained deceleration in home price gains and markets like Florida soften considerably.
As climate change continues to reshape the housing market, these generational divides — and the implications on community resources and tax bases — underscore the complexity of balancing personal priorities, market affordability, and long-term realities of evolving markets.
