“No winter lasts forever; no spring skips its turn,” the late New York Times writer Hal Borland once wrote. “April is a promise that May is bound to keep, and we know it.” A lovely sentiment to be sure, but that promise has been repeatedly broken in the world of real estate, where spring skipped its turn in both 2023 and 2024, and now 2025 is here with little signs of a thaw. We’ve passed the vernal equinox and entered the prime homebuying season, but, despite warmer days and shorter nights, the chill of winter remains on the U.S. housing market.

The numbers are stark: In the first quarter of 2023, mortgage lending in the U.S. fell by nearly 7% to 1.28 million mortgages secured for residential property, the lowest since the turn of the millennium. Spring 2024 continued the downward trend, with sales of existing U.S. homes declining in March, April, and May compared to the previous year.

And so we have to ask: Will it be more of the same for Spring 2025? 

The Backdrop 

The housing market in the United States faces a number of daunting headwinds. Home prices are high, and so are mortgage rates. Variable costs such as taxes and homeowner’s insurance have been climbing for years, adding to the monthly cost of ownership. The costs of maintaining and repairing a home are also up, following years of high inflation driving higher costs of goods and services. 

Real estate brokerage Redfin crunched the numbers in a report released on March 6th and determined that nationally, the median monthly mortgage payment was $2,772, just $26 below an all-time high. And it’s no secret how we’ve arrived at this point, according to Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index. 

Do the math on that, and you’ll find that a typical U.S. home that cost $300,000 in 2019 now carries a sticker of nearly $470,600. If potential buyers are looking to put down 20%, they would have needed $60,000 six years ago but would have to cough up $94,000 today for the very same house. 

The harsh and undeniable reality is that the bar is being set higher and higher to become a homeowner, and making those payments every month to join that “club” is becoming a bigger and bigger burden. 

Don’t Buy, Rent

Rents, meanwhile, have been stabilizing or even softening across the nation, according to Redfin. As of December 2024, renters needed income of about $64,000 to afford the monthly median asking rent for a U.S. apartment of just under $1,600.  

“The affordability gap between renting and buying is likely to widen further in 2025, as home prices rise and mortgage rates remain high. That means potential homebuyers — especially from younger generations — may decide to continue renting for longer, as it’s the only affordable option,” stated Sheharyar Bokhari, senior economist at Redfin.

Prices aren’t high because of limited inventory, however. As of January 2025, there were 3.7 months of for-sale home supply on the U.S. market, up 12% from 3.3 months in January 2024. That is the largest supply of homes for sale in six years. Pending home sales fell 6.3% in January to their lowest point in nearly five years, though, and the typical U.S. home sold in January had sat on the market for 56 days, the longest period since February 2020.  So, although there are more houses for sale, buyers aren’t buying. 

Given that as a backdrop, which is more likely to happen during the homebuying season ahead — a spring thaw, or a seemingly endless winter? 

Continued Frost 

Noelle Tassey, CEO of Redy — which connects home sellers with real estate agents who bid for the chance to represent listings — thinks winter is here for the foreseeable future. “From my perspective, I think we're going to continue to see more of a subdued market this spring.”

Tassey noted the interest is clearly there on the part of home sellers: “There's just a lot of people that would sell, right?” she said. “We see a lot of interest generally, like people are exploring the idea of selling, but there are things holding them back. Selling your house is not super easy. There's a lot blocking people now from selling and swapping into something else, because you still need somewhere to live.” 

“We're just seeing people drag their feet, frankly,” she added. “And I think economic uncertainty is compounding that. People are waking up and they're seeing the stock market, like, going off a cliff and they're thinking, ‘Hmm, maybe I want to stay put and I don't want to take on higher-interest debt to buy a bigger house and stretch myself right now.’”

Tassey also commented on the Trump Administration’s tariffs that have been proposed for various countries. “People aren't feeling as rich right now,” she contended. “They're scared. People don't really understand these tariffs — if they're going to happen, when they're going to happen, what they're going to look like — but they know it's probably not good, and uncertainty is just so bad for the market.”

Raunaq Singh, CEO of Roam, an assumable mortgage company, believes the U.S. housing market will continue to cool. “We're seeing significant trends that illustrate growing DOM [days on market] and price reductions, as well as the affordability gap of what buyers can afford at 7% [rates, roughly, for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage], which will continue to restrict supply and compress the number of buyers available to purchase.”

“Year after year, homebuying always picks up during the spring buying season,” Singh said, “but the problem is that there's not enough of a reason for people to purchase as we continue to see higher rates and volatility in mortgage markets.” 

“Year after year, homebuying always picks up during the spring buying season, but the problem is that there's not enough of a reason for people to purchase as we continue to see higher rates and volatility in mortgage markets.”

> Raunaq Singh, CEO, Roam

Josip Rupena, founder and CEO of Milo, a company launched in 2019 that offers cryptocurrency mortgage and lending solutions, echoed that affordability “... remains the defining challenge of today’s housing market, and as we move into the spring homebuying season, we don’t anticipate a significant shift in conditions.”

“In some areas, home prices are still double what they were just a few years ago, but the dynamics have changed — higher mortgage rates and larger down payment requirements mean buyers simply can’t stretch beyond affordability limits,” Rupena told NMP.

Similarly, “I think we are more likely to see a continued ‘freeze,’” said Adam Hamilton, CEO of REI Hub, a provider of accounting software for rental property owners. “Numbers will likely be up slightly from this winter because spring will always be a more popular time of year to buy, but the housing market hasn’t improved enough to indicate to buyers that it will be a good time to buy.” 

He added that the previously mentioned high home prices and mortgage rates “are not ideal,” and that many people “would rather just wait it out until they can secure a better deal, especially if rent prices are a bit better now.” 

Hope Springs Eternal

Still, there’s at least a glimmer of hope. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate averaged 6.67% as of March 20 (the first day of spring), after almost two months of moderate declines, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, or PMMS. True, the PMMS is focused on home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit — so less-qualified homebuyers will face higher rates.  

But, for perspective, that 6.67% prime rate is 37 basis points less than the 30-year FRM’s average in mid-January. Are we now approaching conditions that will entice homebuyers to make a purchase this spring? 

Quite possibly, yes. There are those who believe this spring homebuying season will pick up, outpacing the springs of ’23 and ’24, as homebuyers begin to accept that higher mortgage rates may be the new norm and some simply have no choice but to purchase homes. 

“Even though many homebuyers and sellers feel nervous about high interest rates, it appears that they are starting to accept that rates probably won't drop drastically anytime soon,” said Marco Fregenal, CEO and director of real estate brokerage Fathom Realty, LLC. “If they want to move for a bigger yard or a better school district, they can't wait forever.” 

“There's also a huge number of buyers and sellers each year who don't really have a choice,” Fregenal pointed out. “Whether it's because they need more room for a growing family, lost a loved one, or they’re being relocated for a new job, they do not always have the luxury to worry about what's happening in the market or with rates.” 

All of those factors, he continued, could contribute to “a market that's a little more lively” in Spring 2025. “It might not be a boom, but it definitely won't be a total freeze, either,” Fregenal said.

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Data & Analytics, conceded that with all the various factors at play now in the U.S. housing market, affordability is what stands in the way of a substantive real estate revival. 

“The bottom line is, we’re likely to see a modest, seasonal increase in home-buying demand, but it will still be constrained by affordability issues and the persistence of the rate ‘lock-in effect’ compared to pre-pandemic spring markets,” she said. 

Still, “leading indicators, such as purchase mortgage applications data, suggest that the early signs of the spring homebuying season are beginning to appear,” Kushi noted. “When spring does arrive, the housing market will likely be more lamb than lion,” she added. 

“Spring has traditionally marked the beginning of the homebuying season, and this year is expected to be more active than the same period in 2024,” said Derrick Nuttall, vice president of Citi Mortgage's Community Lending Team. Nuttall is a bit more bullish regarding this coming spring: some positive factors, like stabilizing interest rates and an increase in housing stock, “are anticipated to contribute to a more robust homebuying market this year,” he said.  

Even if that is the case, he predicted there’ll be varied homebuying activity in different localities “...largely due to differences in home affordability and availability.” Mortgage rates are predicted to remain somewhat stable this year, Nuttall said, and with more home inventory available, it “should help alleviate the bottleneck of buyers seeking quality homes at the right price.”

Kenon Chen, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Growth at Clear Capital, a provider of real estate valuation software, contended, “It is not unreasonable to expect subdued growth in sales as we move toward the spring — there certainly is more inventory available than we have seen since before the pandemic.” 

As others did, Chen also pointed to the mix of good and not-so-good elements at play in the current housing market. “Rates are slightly softening, moving down toward the 6.6% range, but combating that is a recent decline in consumer confidence and continued inflation concerns.”

“Our latest market report shows flat to slightly negative quarter-over-quarter home price appreciation nationally,” Chen continued. “Only the Northeast region saw home prices increase at a modest 0.8%, and in the south, prices declined 0.4%.”

All of this, Chen said, amounts to “fairly good news for homebuyers,” in that “affordability might be headed in the right direction, or at least holding steady.”

Final Word

So, what’s it going to take for the market to shift? Lower, or at least stable, mortgage rates; more homes on the market priced to move; and some stabilization in costs of homeownership, including insurance, taxes, and maintenance. 

A few of those positive market elements are already in place: mortgage rates have drifted down and are stabilizing and home inventory is up. When home sellers price more competitively, houses are finding buyers. Costs of ownership remain volatile due to economic instability connected to tariffs and a potential trade war, but you can’t have everything. The end result, though, is the reasonable hope that homebuyers who’ve been on the sidelines could decide that now’s the time to take the plunge. 

Whether this spring turns out to be a slow melt or a full thaw, though, one thing is clear: the market isn't frozen solid anymore. Loan officers who stay engaged, informed, and responsive will be best positioned to help buyers take that leap — whether it’s their first home or their next chapter. This spring may not bring a heat wave, but for those ready to move, the ice is starting to crack.