Pending home sales fell from a year earlier in all 50 major U.S. metros Redfin tracks, the first such across-the-board decline in three years, even with a record share of sellers cutting their asking prices.
The findings point to continued pressure on purchase lending: Buyers have more homes to choose from and more opportunities to negotiate, but financing costs are keeping monthly payments near record highs.
Nationally, pending sales dropped 12.7% year over year during the four weeks ending Oct. 11, according to Redfin’s latest housing market report. Although the seasonally adjusted measure rose 1.5% from the previous reporting period, it remained just above the prior period’s low in the brokerage’s weekly records, which date to 2021.
Seattle posted the largest annual decline in pending sales, at 26%, followed by Atlanta at 22.7%, San Diego at 22.6%, Denver at 19.3%, and Minneapolis at 18.5%.
Price Cuts Offer Limited Payment Relief
The median asking price fell 0.3% from a year earlier to a seasonally adjusted $396,881, its first annual decline since March. Meanwhile, 22% of active listings had a price reduction, up from 20.9% a year earlier and the highest share in Redfin’s records.
Completed sale prices continued to rise, though barely. The national median increased 0.5% to $391,116, the slowest annual growth since March.
That modest price growth, combined with elevated interest rates, left Redfin’s seasonally adjusted median monthly mortgage payment at $2,777 — up 8.8% annually and the highest in its records except for the previous reporting period. The payment estimate used a 7.4% mortgage rate.
For originators, the figures show why a lower asking price alone may do little to restart a stalled home search. Sellers are adjusting their expectations, but the payment facing buyers remains substantially higher than a year ago.
More Inventory, Fewer New Listings
The supply of homes for sale increased, but the annual gain came alongside fewer new listings and substantially weaker contract activity.
Active listings rose 2% year over year to approximately 1.51 million on a seasonally adjusted basis. New listings fell 1.3% to 359,859. Compared with the previous reporting period, active listings increased 0.8% and new listings edged up 0.4%.
Together, those figures suggest the inventory increase partly reflects homes remaining available while sales lag, rather than an influx of sellers.
Months of supply increased to 4.2 from 3.8 a year earlier, within the four-to-five-month range Redfin considers balanced. Homes that sold spent a median of 49 days on the market, one day longer than a year earlier.
Buyer Leverage Varies By Market
The national slowdown has not eliminated competition for individual properties.
Nearly a quarter of homes sold — 23.6% — closed above their final asking price, slightly higher than 23.2% a year earlier. The average sale-to-list price ratio also edged up to 98.4% from 98.3%.
Local price trends varied considerably even though pending sales declined across all 50 metros. Median sale prices rose 18.1% in San Francisco and 9.4% in Detroit, while falling 6.3% in Seattle and 4.8% in San Jose.
For LOs working with buyers and real estate agents, those differences make property-specific payment comparisons more useful than a blanket assumption that sellers will negotiate. Where a seller is flexible, comparing a price reduction with allowable seller-paid closing costs or a permanent rate buydown can help borrowers understand how each option affects their cash needs and monthly payment.
The latest numbers give those conversations more urgency: Asking prices are beginning to soften, but purchase demand remains near the bottom of Redfin’s five-year weekly series.
