Home prices are falling. Mortgage payments are easing. Sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate. Yet the housing market keeps losing buyers.
Pending home sales fell 16.4% year over year during the four weeks ending Nov. 1, reaching their lowest level in Redfin's weekly records dating to 2021. Sales also slipped 0.6% from the previous four-week period, according to the brokerage's latest housing market report, released Thursday.
The decline comes despite three consecutive weeks of falling home-sale prices, a reversal after roughly three years of annual increases.
The median sale price slipped 0.4% from a year earlier to $388,604. Meanwhile, the typical monthly mortgage payment fell to $2,777, its lowest level in five weeks and $34 below its early October peak.
That relief has been modest. Monthly payments remain 11.1% higher than a year ago, helping explain why cheaper homes and slightly lower rates have done little to revive demand.
The weakness is widespread. Pending sales declined year over year in every major metro Redfin analyzed for the fourth consecutive week. Seattle recorded the steepest drop at 30.5%, followed by San Diego at 26.9% and Atlanta at 26.3%.
Sellers Are Backing Away, Too
Buyers aren't the only ones retreating.
New listings fell 4.6% year over year and 1.5% from the previous four-week period, reaching their lowest level since January. Yet active listings remained 2.1% above last year's level, and the market had 4.6 months of supply, up from four months a year earlier.
The numbers point to a market where homes are lingering even as fewer owners put properties up for sale.
Sellers also appear to be holding onto their price expectations. The median asking price rose 2% year over year, even as actual sale prices declined. More than one in five listings (21.2%) had a price reduction.
The asking-price and sale-price figures measure different groups of homes, but their diverging trends reflect the difficult negotiations playing out across the market.
As NMP reported in October, Redfin estimated that sellers outnumbered buyers by nearly 63% in September, the widest gap in its records.
The latest figures suggest the imbalance continues to weigh on transactions, even as sellers pull back.
Lower Rates, Fewer Loan Applications
The slowdown is showing up in mortgage pipelines, too.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that purchase applications fell 2% for the week ending Oct. 30 and were 19% below their year-earlier level, despite another decline in mortgage rates.
The average contract rate on a 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgage slipped to 7.30% from 7.37%, while adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 11.4% of applications, their highest share since September 2025.
The growing buyer leverage creates room to negotiate seller concessions, closing-cost assistance, and other financing arrangements. But those opportunities are unfolding in a market with fewer purchase contracts and fewer prospective closings.
