With 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, homeowners holding loans below 4% face a steep financing penalty for moving — and new data show how slowly that obstacle is easing.
Nearly half of outstanding mortgages carried rates below 4% in the second quarter, according to Realtor.com’s analysis released Oct. 22. Loans with rates of 6% or higher represented 22.5% of the total, increasing just 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Those figures capture the market through June, before borrowing costs climbed further. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.40% on Oct. 8 and has remained there, widening the gap for homeowners weighing a replacement mortgage.
For originators planning next year’s purchase business, the findings argue for caution about expecting time alone to replenish the repeat-buyer pipeline. The mortgage pool is gradually changing, but borrowers’ reasons to preserve low-rate financing remain substantial.
The report measures loans outstanding through June, before the subsequent increase in borrowing costs. Its release follows NMP’s reporting on how rates above 7% have reduced buyers’ borrowing power even in markets offering more negotiating room. Together, the findings illustrate the financing squeeze on both sides of a move: existing owners must weigh surrendering their current loans, while buyers face tighter payment budgets.
The Rate Mix Is Changing Slowly
Realtor.com’s analysis draws on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database, a nationally representative sample of first-lien mortgages. The shares measure loan counts, rather than outstanding dollar balances.
Low-Rate Loans Still Dominate
Share of outstanding first-lien mortgages, Q2 2026
Interest Rate At Origination | Share Of Loans |
|---|
Below 3% | 19.2% |
|---|
3% to below 4% | 29.9% |
|---|
4% to below 5% | 16.5% |
|---|
5% to below 6% | 12.0% |
|---|
6% or higher | 22.5% |
|---|
49.1% of outstanding mortgages carried rates below 4%.
Source: Realtor.com analysis of FHFA National Mortgage Database data. Shares are by loan count; rates reflect origination. Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.
The 6%-plus share increased 2.3 percentage points from a year earlier. But the quarterly changes remained small: the below-3% share declined just 0.1 percentage points, while the 3%-to-4% bucket fell 0.2 percentage points.
Older Loans, Without A Moving Deadline
The concentration by origination date is equally striking. Loans originated between mid-2019 and mid-2022 represented a record 42.8% of outstanding mortgages, up from 40.8% the previous quarter. Loans originated since mid-2022 accounted for 27.8%.
That older group includes mortgages created during the pandemic refinancing boom. Its growing share reflects both the aging of those loans and limited refinancing activity in subsequent years.
Loan age, however, does not establish how long someone has owned a home. A homeowner who refinanced in 2021 has a loan dated to that refinance, regardless of when the property was purchased. Nor does entering an older loan-age category create a deadline to sell or refinance.
For LOs managing past-client databases, elapsed time since closing is therefore a limited prospecting signal. Changes in household needs, employment, location, or finances offer a more useful basis for identifying who may actually need another transaction.
A Bigger High-Rate Share Can Be Misleading
Realtor.com also modeled how the loan pool could look by mid-2027, estimating that mortgages carrying rates of at least 6% could reach approximately 27% to 28.5% of outstanding loans.
The calculation assumes 3.1 million new purchase mortgages over the following year, all originated at 6% or higher, and no refinances. It considers two scenarios: new loans adding to the outstanding mortgage count without existing loans paying off, or each new loan replacing a mortgage below 6%.
That distinction limits what a rising high-rate share can tell originators about seller activity. In the first scenario, low-rate loans lose market share even though none is paid off. A larger high-rate segment can therefore emerge without a corresponding wave of low-rate homeowners selling.
Even under those assumptions, roughly 72% to 73% of outstanding mortgages would remain below 6% by mid-2027. The estimates are conditional scenarios, rather than a comprehensive forecast of originations or home sales.
Different Borrowers, Different Business
The practical implication is to match outreach to the borrower’s existing financing and current need.
Homeowners preserving low-rate first mortgages may still need financing for improvements or other expenses. NMP’s July reporting on home equity lending’s growing share of transactions documented that shift toward HELOCs and second mortgages. Product suitability still depends on the borrower’s finances and the costs of available options.
Households that need to relocate require a different conversation: the payment and cash needed for a replacement home. Higher-rate borrowers warrant monitoring for future refinance opportunities, with any benefit assessed against closing costs, the remaining term, and how long they expect to keep the loan.
For originators, the report supports a more selective approach to past-client outreach. Identify homeowners whose circumstances require a move, evaluate equity needs among those staying put, and monitor higher-rate borrowers for a financially worthwhile refinance. A changing national rate mix offers context; a borrower’s current circumstances determine the next opportunity.
